Most of you will have already seen today’s video from Moscow. The prior victor may still win the battle, but they have certainly lost the 21st c equivalent of the Great Northern war. For many intents and purposes, the Battle of Poltava (1709) has just been re-fought. 3/3.Įver wonder why you had to memorize all those battles in high school? Now you know why. 2/3 The unanswered question: the 2nd order effects on the GOPFOXDrumpf complex. “Small states” of E Europe stepping up in big way. Major reset of G foreignpol, though not yet willing to accept nuclear power. 1/3 Significant 2nd order effects: R set back decades. G will have to foot the bill for rebuilding as their foreign policy & energy policy strongly implicated. R gambled & lost a huge geo-pol powerplay, but flattened U in the process. Nicely summarized in re Germany by 17, 2022Ī TL DR summary for people who missed the last month. Future historians will study the period from 1914-20xx as a distinct period that deals with the forces that first came to a head on the fields of Flanders.Ģnd order effects of the R invasion–on German policy, on US dom politics, on Chinese strategy–could be as important to global affairs as the obvious 1st order effects. Today’s historians refer to the “long 19th century”, 1789-1914. In retrospect, the Cold War peace (1945-1990s-ish) was just an interregnum in a larger cycle in European history. The tragedies of WW II, Bosnia, Aleppo, & now Ukraine can be linked back to that first “great” war and to paraphrase Keynes, the “consequences of the peace.” (Not to mention the numerous outcomes further afield/outside Europe/Middle East). The decisions/treaties/boundaries (Sykes-Picot, Soviet “Union”, etc)/movements associated w/the “Great War” and the years immediately following (1918-1922) are still driving today’s geopolitical and military realities. Sadly, the death toll from WW I continues to rise, yes, the First World War. As Morson fans already know, Saul is incapable of dull or shallow thinking. Will continue to update, at east for a while.Ī forceful reminder of why, particularly now, we should be engaging Russian culture more, not less. One month in, got some right got some wrong.
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